Australian Open Men’s Singles Final 2025 Preview
The two top-ranked players in men's tennis face off tomorrow in the Australian Open Final, as Italian world number one Jannik Sinner looks to defend his title against German number two Alexander Zverev.
Sinner is a heavy favourite and is practically unbeatable at present, having won 36 of his last 37 matches. He turned on the jets to power past Ben Shelton to reach another final at the Rod Laver Arena.
Zverev is in decent form but hasn’t really been overly tested, with his semi-final against Novak Djokovic ending after the first set due to the Serb’s injury withdrawal.
Stunning Sinner Looks Close to Flawless
Jannik Sinner’s dominance, especially on hard courts, is such that you have to go back over five Months for the last time he failed to make a final.
Subsequently, he has made five successive finals, winning four, and went undefeated to help Italy win the Davis Cup for the second year running.
With Sunday's final being his sixth in a row on tour, he looks odds on to continue this remarkable run.
There are very few crumbs of comfort for Zverev to cling to regarding weaknesses in Sinner’s game, but one could be his net approach play.
It has improved over the last year as he looks to add more variety to his game, but it’s not perfect. He is so dominant from the baseline, though, that he rarely lets his opponents dictate a point long enough to carve a drop shot or a shot that would cause him to play at the net.
He seems to be over the bout of illness that had him struggling against Holger Rune in the fourth round so he is back to peak condition. It will be a tough ask for the German, to say the least.
Sinner’s path to the final
First Round: Nicolás Jarry 7-6 (2), 7-6(5), 6-1
Second round: Tristan Schoolkate 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. 6-3
Third round: Marcos Giron 6-3, 6-4, 6-2
Fourth round: Holger Rune 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Quarter-final: Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-2, 6-1
Semi-final: Ben Shelton 7-6(2), 6-2, 6-2
It Must be Mind Over Matter for Zverev
Zverev is considered by many to be the best active player to have not yet won a Slam, and he will be desperate to rectify this on Sunday at his third attempt.
He possesses one of the best serves on tour, and his backhand is savage when on fire. He has also improved his forehand immeasurably and also uses serve and volley to great effect.
His great weakness remains his second serve, which can at times falter spectacularly at crucial times. It proved his undoing when he lost a two-set lead to Dominic Thiem in the US Open Final in 2020.
He also has the propensity to lose his cool during games and let his emotions come out in extremely negative ways. On one occasion, this resulted in a default at the Mexican Open in 2022 for hitting the umpire's chair repeatedly with his racket.
He will have to figure this into his game plan to have any chance against the granite-minded Sinner.
Zverev’s path to the final
First round: Lucas Pouille 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
Second round: Pedro Martinez 6-1, 6-4, 6-1
Third round: Jacob Fearnley 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
Fourth round: Ugo Humbert 6-1, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
Quarter-final: Tommy Paul 7-6(1), 7-6(0), 2-6, 6-1
Semi-final: Novak Djokovic 7-6(5) Djokovic retired
Match up and Head-to-Head
The fact that a ban from the tour for unintentional doping has not put off Sinner in any way is a testament to how strong a player he is now, both in mind and ability.
Since winning his first Slam at last year’s event, he has had a year that most players can only dream of, and he looks markedly better than when he claimed the title last January.
He suffered from cramp in his semi-final but he is such a professional that I doubt that will occur again in the final.
The mindset could be the key to winning the match, as both players are exceptional in full flow, but Sinner is unlikely to crumble under pressure like Zverev previously has.
You only have to look at his comeback from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev in the 2024 final, compared to both Slam finals Zverev has contested, where he lost from leading positions on both occasions, to see where this match can be won or lost.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning four in a row before Sinner’s rise to the top of the game last year. In their most recent match Sinner prevailed in a tight three set semi-final at Cincinnati last August.
Zverev can take some heart in having beaten Sinner both in a Slam and over five sets before at the US Open in 2023, as well as defeating him in straight sets in 2021’s US Open.
Head-to-Head (previous 5 matches)
Cincinatti 2024 (hard): Sinner d Zverev 7-6(9), 5-7, 7-6(4)
US Open 2023 (hard): Zverev d Sinner 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3
Monte Carlo 2022 (clay): Zverev d Sinner 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(5)
US Open 2021 (hard): Zverev d Sinner 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(7)
Cologne 2 (indoor hard): Zverev d Sinner 7-6(3), 6-3
Prediction
If they both bring their ‘A’ game, the final can become an absolute classic given how well they both serve and hit their groundstrokes. However, while I cannot imagine Sinner dropping his level significantly, I do see this happening to Zverev under pressure. For that reason, I feel Sinner will prevail in four sets and continue his hard-court domination.
How to Watch and Match-Time
The match is scheduled to start not before 8.30am UK Time and is available on Eurosport. Please check local schedules for broadcaster and match times if you live outside the UK.