Australian Open Women’s Singles Final 2025 Preview
Belarusian star Aryna Sabalenka stands one match away from completing a stunning hat-trick of Australian Open titles in Melbourne.
Standing in her way is American Madison Keys, who stunned Iga Świątek in an extraordinary semi-final that will live long in the memory for those lucky enough to have seen it unfold.
Sabalenka is now so comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena that it may as well be her backyard. She is a strong favourite to achieve a three-peat tomorrow, but Keys has already defeated two former Slam champions, Świątek and Elena Rybakina, and will have nothing to lose as she aims to go one better than her previous Slam final, which ended in defeat to Sloane Stephens at the 2017 US Open.
Sabalenka Dominates with Power and Precision
Aryna Sabalenka has arrived at the final without being at her best for much of the tournament, a fact that will cause concern to her opponent.
Her massive serve and hammer-like forehand allow her to dominate from the baseline and gather a lot of easy points in lightning-quick time.
Along with this, she has added great variety to her game with slices, coming to the net, and even drop shots—all of which have improved since winning her first Slam in Melbourne two years ago.
She can be prone to getting frustrated with her game and losing concentration, especially if the conditions are not perfect, such as when she dropped her only set of the tournament against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a windy quarter-final.
However, her mental attitude is such that these lapses are seldom and never last too long. She arrives at the final having swatted aside Paula Badosa in her semi-final, playing peerlessly throughout.
Sabalenka’s path to the final
First Round: Sloane Stephens 6-3, 6-2
Second round: Jessica Bouzas 6-3, 7-5
Third round: Clara Tauson 7-6(5), 6-4
Fourth round: Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2
Quarter-final: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2, 2-6, 6-3
Semi-final: Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2
Can Madison find the ‘Keys’ to victory?
Madison Keys will go into this game as the underdog, but an underdog who is in the form of her life. She is managing to execute sledgehammer groundstrokes from both her forehand and backhand sides and has been able to hit clean winners throughout the tournament, asserting intense pressure on her opponents.
The one big fear for Keys would be that her game could let her down on the big stage. In her only other Slam final, the 2017 US Open, Keys faded dramatically and allowed Sloane Stephens to walk her way to the title.
However, if her year to date is anything to go by, it looks like she has found new levels of mental fortitude, demonstrated by an amazing final set in her semi-final against Świątek, where she saved a match point, broke her opponent, and then came back from 7-5 down in the 10-point tie-break to prevail.
Keys’s path to the final
First round: Ann Li 6-4, 7-5
Second round: Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1), 2-6, 7-5
Third round: Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-4
Fourth round: Elena Rybakina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Quarter-final: Elina Svitolina 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
Semi-final: Iga Świątek 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(8)
Match up and Head-to-Head
Both players will be full of confidence, coming into the final on the back of eleven-match winning streaks, having picked up titles in Brisbane (Sabalenka) and Adelaide (Keys).
Keys has spent far more time on court and would have expended a lot of energy in her semi-final defeat of Świątek, which lasted over two and a half hours, compared to Sabalenka taking just under ninety minutes to dismantle Paula Badosa.
In most other matches, this could be a factor, but it is widely expected that this will be a power-hitting spectacle, with both players preferring points to be finished before the risk of long, drawn-out rallies.
Their similar levels of power in groundstrokes provide an interesting match-up, one that could lead to many ‘who blinks first’ moments throughout.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-1, winning three in a row since Keys' sole victory on the grass of Berlin in 2021. Sabalenka has also won all three of their previous hard-court matches, including last year in Beijing and the 2023 US Open, so Keys will have to keep her level high if she is to turn the tide in Saturday’s final.
Head-to-Head
Beijing 2024 (hard): Sabalenka d Keys 6-4 6-3
US Open 2023 (hard): Sabalenka d Keys 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
Wimbledon 2023 (grass): Sabalenka d Keys 6-2 6-4
Berlin 2021 (grass): Keys d Sabalenka 6-4 1-6 7-5
Cincinnati 2018 (hard): Sabalenka d Keys 6-3 6-4
Prediction
If Keys can maintain the outstanding level she found against Świątek and assert her dominance from the start, then she is more than capable of winning a maiden Slam. However, she faces someone on a twenty-game winning run at the tournament and looking to become the first woman since Martina Hingis to win three in a row at the Australian Open
I feel it hinges on the first set. Should Keys win this, she can take the title, but I predict Sabalenka to raise the trophy again in two sets. She has plenty left in the tank and looks to be saving her best for the showpiece match.
How to Watch and Match-Time
The match is scheduled to start not before 8.30am UK Time and is available on Eurosport. Please check local schedules for broadcaster and match times if you live outside the UK.